Are Corn Trend Yields Increasing at a Faster Rate?

Mike Tannura, Scott Irwin, and Darrel Good ( February, 2008 )

Summary

Crop yields are affected by a complex combination of factors, such as weather, seed genetics, and producer-level management techniques. Despite this complexity, yields tend to show a general increase over time, which is commonly referred to as the “trend yield.” The purpose of this brief is to investigate whether trend yields in the U.S. Corn Belt have accelerated since the mid-1990s. The effect of both weather and technology on corn yields is estimated over a relatively long time period, 1960-2007, for three important corn producing states, Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana.

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