; USDA Yield Estimates: Bomb or Boon? | Conferences | AgRisk Library


Conference Name USDA Yield Estimates: Bomb or Boon?

Elwynn Taylor


The USDA crop production report estimating yield for corn and soybean has little apparent respect amid the farm community, but does have a significant impact on commodity futures prices. The US corn yield per acre forecasts as published in August and September are often far afield from the harvested reality. The forecast methods are, however, not without merit in that they do anticipate the likely per acre yields should weather conditions meet the 5-year average for the remainder of the season. Availability of guidance relative to actual weather and likely crop yield can provide the individual producer with sufficient information to anticipate crop yields in excess of the USDA forecast (or yields to the shy side of the outlook). The producer is enabled to anticipate likely commodity futures price based on current weather history both locally and across the production region of the United States and make informed decisions on both the marketing of stored grain and utilization of futures pricing.