Conferences
Analyzing Crop Choice Using the University of Arkansas Crop Profit/Loss Calculator
Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram
Summary
The Arkansas Crop Profit/Loss Calculator is a new web-based R Shiny decision-making tool designed to assist farmers and lenders in assessing the profit and loss potential of crop production in Arkansas. Users input specific details—county, crop, irrigation method, and rental agreement—and generate tables displaying net returns above operating and rental expenses for 100 scenarios across varying price and yield combinations. Operating expenses are sourced from the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture Crop Enterprise Budgets. Fixed expenses such as taxes, depreciation, and capital recovery are excluded. However, the tool allows users to input farm-specific fixed costs.
The tool uses historical, detrended USDA-NASS county yield data (1960–present) to estimate expected yields. Expected cash prices are derived from a 30-day average of harvest futures contracts combined with state-level cash price data, adjusted for basis values specific to crops like corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans. The tool also includes a breakeven analysis for three rental agreements: “Own,” “Cash Rent,” and “Crop Share.” Breakeven yields and prices are calculated based on cost inputs, expected prices, and rental specifics.
The tool is currently accessible online and is actively used by Arkansas farmers. Future steps for this tool include adding additional states to promote widespread use and to include a print option for producers wanting to retain physical records. The innovative use of R Shiny for developing web-based decision tools is expected to generate discussions about the rapidly evolving technologies employed by Extension educators.
Details
| Conference | 2025 Extension Risk Management Education National Conference |
| Presentation Type | Poster |