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Assessing Future Risks and Returns for Missouri Farms: A Panel Approach

Brent Carpenter

Summary

How will Missouri farms be impacted by new farm bill provisions? Do we understand why? How vulnerable are farms of various types to changes in input costs? What is their risk exposure to changes in production and/or prices? What is the manageable debt ceiling for a given Missouri farm?

This presentation will explain how we work with farmers to quantify answers to these questions and others using stochastic simulations. Along the way we’ll share examples of successful educational efforts related to agricultural policy and farm management issues, such as, outreach meetings directly reaching over 1000 Missouri producers.

More specifically, we’ll summarize:
. The role of farmer panels in creating representative farms,
. What we learn from participating farmers and what farmers learn by participating,
. Accounting and simulation procedures we use,
. Current examples of projected risk and financial performance for crop, dairy, beef, swine, and diversified farms.

The current configuration of Missouri representative farms includes over 200 active panel members and 36 rep farms. The database is maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

Details

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